County coronavirus cases top 500; projected peak time changes

Fairfax County now has 538 confirmed cases of coronavirus, and since the weekend there have been three more deaths.

Tuesday saw 44 new cases in the Fairfax Health District, which includes the county, Fairfax City and the City of Falls Church. The total of number of deaths increased to nine.

No further information on the three deaths and one over the weekend was announced. On Monday the county said it will no longer be making announcements each time a resident dies from coronavirus; previously the county had given their gender and approximate age.

“In the beginning of an incident or outbreak, health departments will often publish more details when the disease is novel or limited to just one or two cases,” the county said on its Emergency Information site. “But, as time goes on, more cases are identified and news of a new case does not warrant any new action by members of the public, we generally discontinue such announcements. That is the situation we are in now. We are not publishing announcements about every new case or death related to COVID-19, unless circumstances warrant.”

The county also explained on Monday why it has not given more data about where the coronavirus cases in the county have been reported. Because community spread is now happening countywide and because of privacy concerns, the county said it won’t be breaking down data beyond the county level, like some other jurisdictions have.

Certain jurisdictions have released data such as a breakdown by zip codes, race and/or gender. Fairfax does breakdown the cases by age on its site, but said health care privacy laws and a desire to not create “a false sense of security” would limit more information from being released at this time.

“COVID-19 knows no boundaries or zip codes,” the county government’s official Twitter account said Monday. “Since a case only represents a place of residence and not where transmission may have occurred, it could create a false sense of security if people think there are more cases in a certain part of Fairfax Health District than in others”

Statewide the supposed “curve” showed no signs of flattening yet, with Monday seeing a record one-day jump in coronavirus cases. There are now 3,333 confirmed cases of coronavirus in Virginia, although both state and local officials have emphasized that the actual number is likely much higher due to the lack of testing, particularly at the start of the crisis.

Testing numbers revealed

Faifax County Board of Supervisors Chairman Jeff McKay said Monday night in his daily update that Inova has performed around 3,500 tests so far at its facilities around the area. He also pointed out a daily video update being given by the health system that can be viewed on YouTube.

And while Inova has said that it has enough bed space to handle the expected surge in coronavirus hospitalizations in the coming weeks, it is looking for physicians, advanced practice providers and Certified Registered Nurse Anesthetists to assist at their hospitals during the current crisis. Anyone qualified and interested can get more information here.

New projections show earlier peak

A University of Washington model that breaks down each state and country’s projected peaks in coronavirus hospitalizations and deaths has significantly revised its earlier projections that had Virginia peaking in mid-May.

The latest update from the model shows Virginia now peaking on April 18. At that time, the model estimates, there will be roughly 51 deaths per day and nearly 2,800 people hospitalized. Currently there are 63 deaths and 528 hospitalizations, which means the next two weeks will see a major increase in both categories.

Current coronavirus cases breakdown:

• Cases in Fairfax County: 532 (as of April 7)
• Tests Fairfax County: Unknown 
• Deaths in Fairfax County: 9 (as of April 7)
  source: Fairfax Department of Health

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• Cases in Virginia: 3,333 (as of April 7)
• Tests in Virginia: 28,445 (as of April 7)
• Deaths in Virginia: 63 (as of April 7)
  source: Virginia Department of Health

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• Cases in U.S. 374,329 (as of April 7)
• Tests in United States: unknown 
• Deaths in United States: 12,064 (as of April 7)
  source: CDC.gov